Transport, Not Towers, Will Define the Next Phase of Dubai and Riyadh City Growth

Skylines reflect ambition, but transport systems determine how cities actually function and who benefits from that growth. Over the past two decades, Dubai and Riyadh have captured global attention through landmark architecture and bold construction. The next chapter will be shaped less by vertical achievements and more by the connective infrastructure beneath and between them. Mass transit networks, walkable districts and region-spanning rail corridors will increasingly define economic competitiveness, livability and environmental outcomes from Dubai Creek Harbour to Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District.

Recent data highlights why this shift matters. In 2024, Dubai experienced worsening congestion with average delays around 25 per cent and declining travel speeds, even as public transport and shared mobility usage rose to over 700 million trips for the year, averaging more than two million journeys daily. When reliable alternatives exist, people use them, demonstrating that transport choices are driven by system design, not preference. Meanwhile, Riyadh’s population is projected to reach roughly 9.6 million by 2030, up from around seven million in 2022, underscoring that car-led growth at this scale is no longer tenable without significant economic and environmental costs.

Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan rightly places sustainable mobility and people-centric design at the heart of future growth. The Metro Blue Line, a 30-kilometre, 14-station expansion linking Dubai International Airport with key residential, academic and employment clusters, is more than a transport project; it is a strategic lever to reset land-use patterns. Following a Dh20.5 billion contract award and with operations targeted for 2029, it brings credible alternatives to private vehicles and anchors development around high-capacity public transport. The updated RTA Strategic Plan to 2030 complements this with integrated multimodal networks, the “20-minute city” concept, early self-driving pilots, Euro-6 fleet upgrades and electric buses aligned with net-zero objectives, showing that mobility planning is advancing well beyond corridors into how people live and move.

In Saudi Arabia, the fully operational Riyadh Metro - with six lines, 176 kilometres and 85 stations-represents a major engineering and delivery achievement as the world’s longest driverless metro network. It’s phased opening, completed in January 2025, reframes urban growth. The challenge now is to translate engineering success into urban value by integrating the system with feeder bus networks, pedestrian access and transit-oriented development that expands choice and reduces reliance on private cars. Metro coverage becomes more than infrastructure when it expands access to jobs, services and opportunities for a broader share of residents.

Rail investment is also proving its value at national scales. The Haramain High-Speed Railway, for instance, has transported more than 20 million cumulative passengers with punctuality consistently above 96 per cent, demonstrating how electrified rail can absorb peak flows, reduce congestion and enhance traveler experience. During Ramadan 2024 alone, the service carried over one million passengers, a 22 per cent year-on-year increase that underscores latent demand for efficient alternatives. One other strategic infrastructure priority is the Saudi Land Bridge, a proposed east–west rail link, which includes links between Jeddah, Riyadh and Dammam. With design tendering resumed, this corridor would shorten logistics cycles and strengthen Vision 2030’s ambitions to position Saudi Arabia as a regional logistics hub. Its impact would be magnified when aligned with the emerging GCC Railway framework, which aims for a connected regional network by decade’s end, boosting resilience and reducing structural transport costs across borders.

Each minute saved on a commute translates into better job matching and higher productivity. In Dubai, the Blue Line will reduce travel costs for hundreds of thousands of residents and shift long-term land-use patterns. In Riyadh, the metro extends mobility choices beyond owning a car and allows more households to access opportunity without the financial burden of vehicle ownership. Transport is also where Gulf cities can achieve some of their largest near-term emissions reductions: Dubai’s target to raise public and shared transport’s journey share to 25 per cent by 2030 reflects the scale of opportunity when modes shift from private to sustainable alternatives.

Large-scale developments will continue to capture headlines, but their success depends on connectivity. The Mukaab in New Murabba, Riyadh, illustrates this point: designed as a compact, walkable centre and proximity to the airport, its viability hinges on seamless integration with the Riyadh Metro.. Public discussions about delivery timelines extending into the 2030s and 2040s highlight a structural reality: even the boldest structures rely on phased transport and infrastructure rollout to unlock their potential.

The Gulf’s competitive edge has long been speed, speed of decision, delivery and reinvention. The last decade delivered icons; the decade ahead must deliver networks: metro interchanges where talent is within 30 minutes, shaded sidewalks where retail thrives due to consistent footfall, and regional rail that turns the GCC market from concept to economic reality. For Dubai, this means completing the Blue Line on schedule and using it to reset eastern corridor development patterns. For Riyadh, it means converting a world-class metro system into a framework for inclusive, transit-oriented growth. For Saudi Arabia more broadly, it means sequencing Haramain’s success into east–west rail and, ultimately, a fully integrated regional system.

If cities are judged by what affects people’s daily lives - time saved, emissions reduced and households connected to opportunity - the conclusion is clear. The skylines we built symbolised arrival; the transport systems we are building will determine what we become.

Transport, Not Towers, Will Define the Next Phase of Dubai and Riyadh City Growth

Belal Deiranieh

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